Is Automatic Promotion Simply a Matter of Chance?

A lack of big chances might be worth keeping an eye on against better opponents, especially with Meslier in goal.

Daniel Farke is holding the keys to the Leeds United muscle car for a second straight season, and fans are feeling much better than they were last September. With eight points earned from four league matches, the West Yorkshire outfit are a mere four points out from first in the Championship, and there seems to be a positive feeling percolating through the fanbase, which in itself is something of a novelty that shouldn’t be taken for granted. 

The team seems deeper, more organised, and better poised for automation promotion than they were after the infamously chaotic Summer of 2023 (insert foreboding music here). This comes amidst an anxious transfer window that made sacrificial lambs out of three of the side’s best and most treasured players for the sake of FFP rules, PSR, and/or whatever other acronym or narrative totem one might use to discuss the oft referenced but scarcely understood ecosystem of the club’s finances under the 49ers ownership. 

Of course, excitement creates expectation, and expectation invites scrutiny. While it’s admittedly too early to judge a team after a mere four games played, there are some reasons to ponder whether the “HMS Piss the League” vibes around Farke’s side might be a bit premature.

When Leeds United is winning, that’s the only thing the fanbase wants to talk about. That’s fair — football is a results-based business — winning trumps everything. Leeds have made a solid start. However, one trend from recent match data might, if left unchecked, be an important metric to examine should results be less favourable in the coming weeks. 

There is a relative lack of big chances complementing the dominance Farke’s team is currently enjoying, which is primarily reflected in possession stats. 

Let’s pause momentarily. Hone in on this word: relative. So far, the team is creating enough big chances to win. That’s not the question. The question is whether this number of big chances is enough to outclass better teams than the sides we’ve played thus far. Additionally, every Leeds fan should ask themselves whether or not they’re confident in the goalkeeping situation at Elland Road. I believe it plays a major factor, and I’d rather push our attacking play to a level that creates an additional big chance per match than let our promotion hopes come down to small goals margins in big matches with Meslier as our last line of defence.

Here are the facts. Leeds United’s recent league form reveals a dichotomy between their ability to control matches and a low number of high-quality chances they’re actually creating. With two 2-0 victories and a 0-0 draw over the last three matches, Leeds have secured results without bombarding the opposition with on-target shot attempts. A deeper look at the limited data suggests that this strategy may leave them vulnerable against well-organised defences. Is this alarming in a vacuum? No. Is it potentially alarming after applying the context of weak shot stopping? Absolutely.

The  0-0 draw against West Brom should raise a caution flag. Despite dominating possession by a 20% margin and completing 173 more passes than the Baggies, Leeds only managed a single shot on target out of 8 total attempts, a number identical to their opponents. Leeds United’s xG at the end of the match was a meagre 0.7, suggesting that West Brom’s strategy of staying compact in deep, central areas was highly effective. They limited opportunities for big chances, which ultimately stifled Leeds’ attack.

In other words, a team with less talent and depth sacrificed almost every statistical category to Leeds, all except big chance creation, and managed to grind out a draw. Does this sound familiar? It happened last season. Check the results against Rotterdam, Blackburn, Huddersfield, and QPR last season. You’ll find a thorough domination of possession by Leeds, but a narrow margin in big big chances created.

You’ll also find a bunch of weak goals conceded by Leeds United’s goalkeeper. Therein lies the root of my anxiety.

In their recent 2-0 win over Hull City, Leeds registered 16 shots (5 on target) and most of their shots were not from particularly dangerous positions, which was reflected in their xG. While Leeds were able to secure a deserved win against Hull — they were the far better side — the margin for error was thinner than a team as dominant as Leeds would expect. Another team more capable than Hull of creating a few chances of their own, even if only on the counter, might have forced a different result.

This pattern was seen in the previous match against Sheffield Wednesday, where Leeds again managed a 2-0 victory. However, they had three fewer shots than they did against Hull, and generated a slightly lower xG of 1.19 against 2 goals scored. Again, it’s important to remember that actual goals are much more important than xG. That’s obvious. However, teams that over perform their xG are usually making more with less. Sometimes this is a matter of excellent finishers habitually outperforming xG. Sometimes it’s a matter of luck. 

In the case of Leeds United, albeit (again) considering only a very limited data set to work with so far, we’re watching a ball-dominant team with a weak goalkeeper create relatively few clear-cut chances per match, even when they are in total control of the game. This is what keeps me at up at night, plaguing me with nightmares of a third season in the EFL.

“Come on, Gabe!” I can almost hear you all shouting at me in my mind’s eye. “Why are you focusing so much on this? How many chances do you think we need to create to feel confident in our performance levels against top teams in this division?”

I’ll answer your hypothetical question with one of my own. How many shots on our goal do you think opposing teams need to generate to put one past Illan Meslier?

That’s the point.

Tell me if you’ve heard this before. Leeds United start a match against a mid-table EFL side on fire, controlling play, dominating possession, and maintaining clear control of the match. However, final moves in the attacking third don’t quite materialise the way they want, as the opposition utilises low block discipline and a compacted shape to limit clear chances. Leeds fail to capitalise on their dominance, and the teams go into halftime tied at 0-0. The second half starts much the same way as the first. Substitutions are made by the manager in the 75th minute, and Leeds throw everything they have at their outclassed opponents.

However, one mistake results in a clear chance on Meslier…

Understand why I think Leeds needs to generate more big chances yet?

As long as Illan Meslier is the starting goalkeeper for Leeds United, we are always going to need to create more big chances than their opponents. Therein highlights the biggest vulnerability for Leeds. 

Farke doesn’t seem interested in replacing Meslier. Since the goalkeeping picture isn’t going to change, the big chances this team creates needs to increase. The Manager has done an incredible job rebuilding an identity, ethos, and culture at Leeds United. However, in order to keep the confidence of the fans, and prevent an ulcer from forming at the base of my gut, he’s going to have to beat the toughest teams in the division — the ones who can both limit our chances and create more than enough of our own. To do that, Leeds must create more goal scoring opportunities.